Quantifying feedback pathways in accelerated Arctic sea-ice thinning, 1995–2024

Abstract

Arctic sea ice has thinned substantially over the past three decades, yet the relative contributions of individual feedback processes remain debated. We combine a 30-year record of satellite altimetry with an ensemble of coupled model simulations to partition thinning into albedo, cloud and ocean heat transport contributions. Our results indicate that ocean heat convergence explains a larger share of winter thinning than previously estimated, while surface albedo feedback dominates summer losses. These findings refine projections of seasonally ice-free conditions and highlight observational gaps in the Atlantic sector.

Keywords

• sea ice
• polar amplification
• climate feedbacks
• altimetry