Compound climate extremes and agricultural system resilience under global change

Global changes are reshaping the conditions under which agricultural systems operate. Beyond climate change, land use dynamics, biodiversity loss, soil degradation, and evolving socio economic pressures interact to influence agricultural productivity and ecosystem functioning. Among these interacting drivers, compound climate extremes, events in which multiple climatic stressors coincide or occur in rapid succession, represent an emerging challenge for crops, grasslands, and other managed agricultural ecosystems. These include successive hot–pluvial extremes (SHPEs), in which intense heat is followed by exceptionally heavy rainfall within a critical period. Recent analyses indicate that SHPEs have become more frequent over the past few decades and may contribute to synchronized yield reductions across major agricultural regions. Nevertheless, the effects of compound extremes on crop, forage and livestock production systems remain insufficiently understood, particularly in globally important breadbasket regions. The interconnectedness of these regions through trade means that simultaneous production shocks can increase food-price volatility and intensify food insecurity well beyond the areas directly affected. Recent advances in remote sensing, artificial intelligence and machine learning (e.g., XGBoost and deep learning approaches), digital agriculture, digital twins, meta-modelling, and crop- and ecosystem-modelling have created new opportunities to identify nonlinear responses, estimate critical thresholds, improve impact forecasting, and support decision-making across diverse agricultural systems. Further research is needed to clarify how compound hazards affect different agricultural systems, identify the mechanisms underpinning these responses, and determine which adaptation measures can most effectively reduce risks.This Research Topic aims to develop rigorous and globally relevant evidence base on the effects of compound climate extremes, within the broader context of global change, on agricultural productivity, ecosystem functioning, and food security. It welcomes studies addressing annual cropping systems as well as permanent grasslands, rangelands, mixed crop–livestock systems and other perennial production systems. It will bring together climate scientists, agronomists, ecologists, grassland and rangeland scientists, crop and ecosystem modelers, data scientists, economists, land-use researchers, and policy scientists to improve understanding of the mechanisms and thresholds through which compound hazards reduce agricultural productivity and ecosystem resilience; evaluate advanced data-driven, remote-sensing, and crop- and ecosystem-modelling approaches for predicting the impacts of compound climate extremes on agricultural productivity and ecosystem functioning; assess the potential for synchronized production failures across interconnected breadbasket regions; and identify adaptation, early warning, and policy strategies that can strengthen agricultural resilience and food-system security. Contributions addressing uncertainty, model transferability, regional inequalities, and implications for vulnerable producers and consumers are especially encouraged. To gather further insights into the effects of compound climate extremes on agricultural production and food security, we welcome original research, reviews, perspectives, and methodological contributions addressing, but not limited to, the following themes: • Detection, classification, and historical trends of compound and successive climate extremes affecting agriculture. • Yield thresholds and nonlinear responses of crops and agricultural systems to compound heat, drought, rainfall, flooding and other hazards. • Machine-learning, statistical, remote-sensing, and hybrid crop- and ecosystem-modelling approaches for predicting the impacts of compound climate extremes on agricultural productivity and ecosystem functioning.• Synchronized production failures and systemic risks across globally connected breadbasket regions. • Impacts on annual crops, forage systems, permanent grasslands, rangelands, mixed crop-livestock systems and other perennial agricultural systems.• Adaptation strategies, early-warning systems, climate services, and resilience-building measures. • Effects on agricultural trade, food prices, nutrition, and global food-security policy. • Uncertainty assessment, model validation, and the transferability of risk assessments across regions. • Interactions between compound climate extremes and other global change drivers, including land-use change, soil degradation, biodiversity loss and changing management practices.• Ecosystem functioning, ecosystem services, resilience and multifunctionality of agricultural systems under compound climate extremes and global change. Topic editors: Robert Mangani, Gianni Bellocchi Source: https://www.frontiersin.org/research-topics/84706/compound-climate-extremes-and-agricultural-system-resilience-under-global-change