Hydro-demographic drivers of aquifer depletion and urban water insecurity in Borama, Somaliland: a mixed-methods assessment

1 Introduction

Urban water security is a fundamental pillar of sustainable development, defined as the reliable availability of an acceptable quantity and quality of water for health, livelihoods, and production, coupled with an acceptable level of water-related risks (Grey and Sadoff, 2007; Vörösmarty et al., 2010). In arid and semi-arid regions, groundwater serves as the primary, and often the only, reliable freshwater resource, accounting for the vast majority of accessible freshwater globally (Taylor et al., 2013). However, this vital resource is increasingly threatened by the compounding impacts of climate change and rapid urban expansion. When groundwater extraction exceeds natural recharge, it diminishes available water volume and degrades water quality, placing millions of urban dwellers on the brink of severe water scarcity (Legg, 2021; Montanari et al., 2013). Consequently, understanding the nexus between climate variability and groundwater dynamics (Adger et al., 2013) is critical for safeguarding urban populations against imminent hydrological shocks. The rapid depletion of groundwater represents an invisible crisis that threatens the very survival of modern urban centers. As cities expand at unprecedented rates, the overexploitation of aquifers (Custodio, 2002) has transitioned from a localized environmental issue to a global systemic risk (Bierkens and Wada, 2019; Dos Santos et al., 2017; Famiglietti, 2014). When groundwater extraction exceeds natural recharge, it not only diminishes the available water volume but also degrades water quality, demanding significant financial resources for remediation and deep-well drilling (Jun et al., 2025). This precarious situation places millions of urban dwellers on the brink of severe water scarcity. The urgency of this topic lies in the collision of two unstoppable forces: climate-induced droughts that starve aquifers of recharge, and explosive urban population growth that relentlessly drains them. If these subterranean reservoirs fail, the socio-economic collapse of the dependent cities is inevitable.

Historically, the trajectory of groundwater exploitation has evolved from sustainable local use to massive global overdraft. Globally, satellite data and hydrological models reveal that the world’s major aquifers are being depleted at alarming rates (Döll et al., 2014) to sustain agriculture and urban growth (Rodell et al., 2009; Wada et al., 2010; Scanlon et al., 2012). In Africa, despite possessing vast, untapped groundwater reserves estimated to be 100 times the volume of the continent’s annual renewable freshwater (MacDonald et al., 2012), access remains highly uneven. Sub-Saharan Africa, in particular, suffers from “economic water scarcity,” where a lack of infrastructure and investment limits groundwater utilization (Calow et al., 2010). In East Africa, rapidly expanding metropolises such as Nairobi and Addis Ababa face severe groundwater depletion due to unregulated pumping and climate variability, serving as cautionary examples for emerging cities in the region. Similarly, in the broader Horn of Africa, the historical context is defined by a harsh, semi-arid climate (Adelana and MacDonald, 2008) punctuated by recurrent, multi-year droughts that exacerbate these vulnerabilities (Nicholson, 2014). In Somaliland, surface water is virtually non-existent outside the Juba and Shabelle river basins, making reliance on groundwater not merely a matter of economic development, but of absolute human survival (Falkenmark, 1989; Owor et al., 2009).

Situated in the Awdal region of northwestern Somaliland (Somaliland), Borama City exemplifies the complex intersection of rapid urbanization and climate vulnerability. Borama is a major educational and commercial hub, experiencing significant demographic growth driven by rural-to-urban migration and natural population increase. Geographically located in a semi-arid mountainous terrain, the city lacks perennial surface water and relies entirely on groundwater extracted from local boreholes and wellfields, primarily managed by public-private partnerships such as the SHABA water company. The local context is characterized by highly erratic rainfall patterns and a high Topographic Wetness Index (TWI) variability, which dictates the limited infiltration and recharge of the underlying aquifers (Jun et al., 2025). As the city’s footprint expands, the impermeable urban surfaces further reduce natural recharge, placing immense pressure on a fragile and finite subterranean water supply.

Despite its critical reliance on groundwater, Borama City is currently facing a severe urban water security crisis. The core problem is a widening deficit between groundwater extraction and aquifer recharge, exacerbated by climate change. Prolonged and recurrent droughts have drastically reduced the seasonal rainfall required to replenish local aquifers. Simultaneously, the booming urban population has skyrocketed domestic and commercial water demand. This unsustainable dynamic has led to a noticeable drawdown in the water table, forcing water utility providers to drill deeper boreholes and implement strict water rationing protocols. Consequently, households are experiencing acute water supply interruptions, escalating water tariffs, and an increased reliance on unregulated, expensive water trucking, which disproportionately affects vulnerable and low-income populations (Wutich et al., 2016).

While extensive literature exists on global groundwater depletion, there is a glaring scarcity of empirical, localized research focusing on urban groundwater dynamics in Somaliland. The novelty of this research lies in its methodological advancement: it integrates empirical hydrogeological metrics (such as borehole drawdown rates) with socio-economic vulnerability indicators. By doing so, it provides a scalable mixed-methods framework that bridges physical aquifer mechanics with urban socio-economic impacts, moving beyond theoretical climate models to capture the quantified realities of water insecurity in a data-scarce region.

To address this critical gap, this study is guided by the following central research questions: (1) What is the quantitative extent of aquifer drawdown and groundwater depletion in Borama City? (2) How does this physical scarcity translate into socio-economic vulnerability for urban households? (3) What are the evidence-based policy implications for climate-resilient water management? The remainder of this paper details the methodology, presents the empirical results, discusses the findings, and concludes with strategic policy implications.

2 Materials and methods

2.1 Study area

The study was conducted in Borama City, the administrative capital of the Awdal region, situated in the northwestern part of Somaliland/Somaliland. The city spans the geographical coordinates of approximately 9°56′N latitude and 43°11′E longitude. Nested in a mountainous and hilly terrain at an elevation of approximately 1,450 meters above sea level, Borama is characterized by a semi-arid climate. The region experiences highly erratic and unpredictable rainfall patterns, with an average annual precipitation ranging between 400 and 500 mm, which is primarily distributed across two main rainy seasons (the Gu in spring and the Deyr in autumn). Conversely, the area is subjected to high average annual evaporation rates. These climatic factors play a significant role in shaping the region’s water balance, severely limiting surface water availability and making the hydrological system highly sensitive to climate variability.

From a geological and hydrogeological perspective, the region is predominantly underlain by Precambrian crystalline basement rocks. The presence of localized fractured aquifers and permeable alluvial deposits along dry riverbeds (locally known as wadis or dooxas, such as the Amoud valley) plays a crucial role in the formation and storage of groundwater resources. Because perennial surface water is virtually non-existent in the region, these subsurface formations serve as the sole source of freshwater for the city’s domestic, commercial, and agricultural needs.

In recent years, Borama has experienced rapid urbanization and demographic expansion, transforming into a major educational and commercial hub in the Horn of Africa. These intense human activities and the expanding urban footprint, coupled with recurrent climate-induced droughts, have led to excessive groundwater extraction. The over-reliance on local boreholes and wellfields managed largely by public-private utility partnerships has contributed significantly to the decline in groundwater quantity. Consequently, the intersection of rapid urban growth and climate stress has placed immense pressure on the local aquifers, making the assessment of urban water security and supply challenges a critical priority for the region. (Figure 1 illustrates the geographical context and key hydrogeological features of the study area).

2.2 Research design

To comprehensively evaluate urban water security in a data-scarce environment, this study employed a mixed-methods research design, integrating both quantitative and qualitative approaches (Creswell and Clark, 2007). The rationale for utilizing a mixed-methods framework is to triangulate empirical data regarding groundwater depletion with the lived socio-economic realities of the urban population. The quantitative component was designed to measure the extent of water scarcity, cost fluctuations, and household consumption patterns, while the qualitative component aimed to capture the underlying institutional challenges, community perceptions, and historical context of climate impacts on local aquifers.

2.3 Sampling strategy and sample size

The target population for the quantitative survey comprised households residing within the urban boundaries of Borama City. To ensure a statistically representative sample, the sample size was determined using Slovin’s formula (Kothari, 2004). This formula was selected as it is highly suitable for socio-economic surveys in data-scarce regions where the total population size is estimable, but the population variance is unknown. Based on an estimated total urban household population of N = 10,000, and a margin of error of 5% (e = 0.05), a target sample size of 384 households was determined. The household sampling procedure was proportionally allocated across Borama’s four main administrative districts using a spatial grid method along main streets as the sampling frame to ensure that variations in water access were adequately captured.

n = N 1 + N ( e ) 2

Where n is the sample size, N is the total estimated household population of the city, and e is the margin of error (set at 5%, or 0.05). Based on this calculation, a target sample size of 384 households was determined. A stratified random sampling technique was utilized to select households across different municipal districts to ensure that variations in water access and socio-economic status were adequately captured.

For the qualitative component, purposive sampling was employed to select Key Informants who possess specialized knowledge regarding the city’s hydrogeology and water management infrastructure.

2.4 Participants selection

A mixed-methods sampling strategy was employed to capture both the socio-economic realities of urban households and the technical hydrogeological dynamics of Borama City. For the quantitative component, a stratified random sampling technique was used to approach the target sample. Out of the 384 households targeted, 362 provided complete and valid responses for the final analysis, resulting in a response rate of 94.3%. For the qualitative component, a purposive sampling strategy was utilized to recruit 22 Key Informants, comprising 20 Water Engineers (including independent hydrogeologists and municipal planners) and 2 senior management staff from the SHABA public-private water utility company. This purposive selection was strategically chosen to gather robust, technical hydrogeological evidence to validate the physical dimensions of water scarcity. Interviews were conducted until data saturation was reached, ensuring comprehensive representativeness of the local hydrogeological expertise.

The qualitative participants were selected based on specific inclusion criteria: possessing a relevant degree in engineering, hydrology, or environmental management, and having at least 3 years of active professional experience in the Borama water sector to ensure a deep, technical understanding of the local aquifer’s depletion dynamics. After obtaining institutional approvals, potential participants were contacted via official letters and emails detailing the study’s purpose. Table 1 provides a summary of the Key Informants’ demographic and professional characteristics.

Table 1. Key informant demographic and professional characteristics (N = 22).

2.5 Data collection

2.5.1 Tools for evidence generation

The primary quantitative tool was a Structured Household Questionnaire administered face-to-face. Semi-structured Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) served as the primary qualitative tool. In addition, Institutional Document Review was utilized. Empirical data, including historical borehole depletion charts and utility performance indicators (2002–2024), were collected from the SHABA water company. To ensure reliability and scientific rigor, these secondary institutional records were subjected to quality-control procedures, including cross-referencing the reported drawdown data with independent field observations and historical rainfall patterns

2.5.2 Data analysis

The Quantitative data were analyzed using SPSS to generate descriptive statistics. Additionally, inferential statistical analyses, specifically Chi-square tests of independence, were employed to test relationships between socio-economic variables.

The qualitative evidence was analyzed using the thematic analysis framework proposed by Braun and Clarke (2006). To ensure methodological transparency, the coding procedure was supported by qualitative data management software (NVivo). Initial codes were generated systematically, and inter-coder validation was conducted by two independent researchers to resolve any discrepancies and ensure the reliability of the finalized themes (see Table 2).

Table 2. Codebook for thematic analysis.

3 Results

3.1 Analysis of water security dimensions

The analysis summarized in Table 3 reveals a severe state of urban water insecurity by directly comparing the perspectives of urban households and technical experts. The data are categorized into sources, consequences, and moderators (coping strategies), highlighting areas of consensus and divergence between the two groups.

Table 3. A comparative analysis of water insecurity perceptions between households and technical experts.

3.1.1 Sources of water insecurity

The primary drivers of water stress in Borama are rooted in the collision of hydro-climatic shifts and explosive demographic growth. There is a strong consensus on this point, with nearly all households (95%) and all surveyed technical experts identifying erratic rainfall and recurrent droughts as the primary cause. Institutionally, experts pointed to severe aquifer drawdown. Quantitative hydrogeological data obtained from SHABA provides strong scientific support for this: the estimated extraction rates currently exceed natural recharge rates by a significant margin during dry seasons. Furthermore, the institutional borehole depletion charts reveal an average annual groundwater level decline (drawdown rate) of approximately 1.5 to 2.0 meters across major well-fields (e.g., BH 20 and BH 26) from 2016 to 2024. Simultaneously, household connections increased from 180 in 2002 to over 20,698 in 2024. (See Figure 2 for the historical trends of groundwater drawdown).

3.1.2 Socio-economic and infrastructural consequences

Infrastructurally, 75% of households reported experiencing severe rationing (receiving water less than 3 days a week), a reality confirmed by experts as an operational necessity. Economically, 80% of households and 90% of experts agreed that reliance on unregulated private water trucking imposes a high financial burden. To statistically validate this economic vulnerability, a Chi-square test of independence was conducted on the data presented in Table 4. The results revealed a highly significant relationship between household monthly income and the likelihood of compromising other basic needs due to water costs (X² = 85.4, p < 0.001). This confirms that lower-income households bear a disproportionately severe economic shock during municipal water shortages. (Figure 3 illustrates the dramatic increase in household connections and the utility’s efficiency in managing this demand).

Table 4. Cross-tabulation of household monthly income vs. compromise on basic needs due to water costs (n = 362).

3.1.3 Moderators and coping strategies

Institutionally, SHABA has maximized efficiency, reducing non-revenue water from 60% in 2002 to 10.6% in 2024. At the household level, 65% reported purchasing expensive trucked water. A significant finding is the reliance on spiritual coping; 85% of households and the majority of experts recognized prayers for rain (Salat al-Istisqa) as a crucial communal response to prolonged droughts

3.1.4 Institutional recommendations

The recommendations emphasize a necessary shift from reactive crisis management to proactive infrastructural investment. While an overwhelming majority of households (90%) desire government subsidies to offset the cost of water, a smaller majority of technical experts (75%) support this, with many stressing that financial aid does not solve the physical lack of water. The engineers unanimously (100%) recommended the implementation of Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) systems, such as check-dams in the Amoud Valley, to capture flash floods and artificially replenish the aquifers. Furthermore, there was strong consensus on the need for new water sources, as both households (85%) and nearly all experts (95%) agreed on the urgent need for the government to fund the exploration of entirely new, distant well-fields to relieve the pressure on Borama’s current subterranean reserves.

3.2 Demographic profile and sampling representative

Table 5 presents the demographic characteristics of the household participants (n = 362). To ensure a comprehensive understanding of the socio-economic realities in Borama, a stratified random sampling strategy was employed. The sample was predominantly female (62%), reflecting the cultural reality that women are primarily responsible for domestic water management and are most acutely aware of supply fluctuations. The majority of respondents (65%) fell within the 26–45 age bracket, typically representing heads of households. Economically, the sample highlights the vulnerability of the population, with 50% earning $100 or less per month. This low-income baseline is critical for understanding why the sudden need to purchase expensive trucked water during municipal shortages causes severe economic strain.

Table 5. Demographic profiles of the household participants (n = 362).

3.3 Thematic alignment of research findings

The thematic analysis of the data reveals a stark narrative: Borama City is facing a systemic water security crisis driven by the intersection of climate change and rapid urbanization. The primary source of the crisis is the physical depletion of the local aquifers. This is not a failure of utility management; as the SHABA data proves, the utility has achieved an impressive 98.33% household distribution rate and minimized water loss. Instead, the crisis is ecological. As one hydrogeologist explained, “We are extracting water faster than the erratic Gu and Deyr rains can recharge it” (KII-03).

This ecological deficit translates directly into socio-economic hardship at the household level. The effects of workload stress on the aquifer force the utility to implement strict rationing, leaving households with dry taps for days. Consequently, families are pushed into the unregulated water trucking market. A female respondent’s experience encapsulates this burden: “When the SHABA water stops, we have to pay triple the price to the booyado (trucks). It means less money for food that week.” To cope, the community relies on a mix of severe domestic rationing and deep spiritual resilience, yet there is a consensus that without major infrastructural interventions such as Managed Aquifer Recharge the city’s survival is at risk.

4 Discussion

This study provides a nuanced, empirical understanding of urban water security in the data-scarce context of Borama, Somaliland. The findings align with and extend the existing global literature on groundwater depletion (Bierkens and Wada, 2019; Famiglietti, 2014). A unique paradox revealed in this study is that while many developing nations face “economic water scarcity” due to poor utility management (Calow et al., 2010; Rijsberman, 2006). Borama’s primary utility operates with high administrative efficiency. As noted by one of the senior utility managers (KII-01), “the aquifer simply cannot sustain this mathematical reality.” This interpretative insight, backed by the quantitative drawdown rates of 1.5 to 2.0 meters annually, confirms that the crisis is fundamentally ecological rather than a failure of utility management. The empirical borehole depletion charts offer undeniable quantitative evidence that extraction has vastly outpaced natural recharge.

The detrimental socio-economic effects of this depletion are statistically significant. The Chi-square analysis confirms that strict rationing and reliance on expensive water trucking disproportionately affect low-income households, forcing them to compromise on food and healthcare. This validates the literature stating that environmental degradation exacerbates economic inequality (Sorenson et al., 2011), confirming the literature that environmental degradation exacerbates economic inequality Furthermore, the reported increase in water salinity serves as a critical proxy indicator of aquifer over-exploitation.

The community’s reliance on spiritual coping strategies (Salat al-Istisqa) adds a valuable cultural dimension to the literature on climate adaptation. However, administrative efficiency and community resilience have reached their limits. The disconnect between the growing urban footprint and finite subterranean reserves highlights an urgent need for state-level intervention.

5 Conclusion and recommendations

Borama City is navigating a severe urban water security crisis characterized by climate-induced aquifer depletion, explosive demographic demand, and escalating socio-economic costs for vulnerable households. Despite the impressive administrative efficiency of the local utility, the physical reality is that groundwater extraction has vastly outpaced natural recharge, leading to a significant annual drawdown of the water table. Borama has reached an ecological tipping point.

Based on the empirical findings of this study, the following evidence-based policy implications and strategic pathways are recommended:

• Implementation of managed aquifer recharge (Dillon et al., 2019) (MAR): It is crucial for policymakers and international development partners to consider strategic investments in MAR infrastructure, such as check-dams and infiltration basins in the Amoud Valley, to capture seasonal flash floods and artificially recharge the aquifers.
• Exploration of alternative well-fields: Comprehensive hydrogeological surveys should be commissioned to locate and develop new, distant well-fields to diversify the city’s water sources and relieve pressure on current reserves.
• Economic protections: To protect low-income households from price gouging during municipal shortages, local authorities are encouraged to introduce price caps and quality control regulations for private water trucking vendors.

5.1 Limitations

This study was conducted in a data-scarce environment. While the integration of institutional data provided robust empirical backing, the study relies on the accuracy of utility records and self-reported socio-economic data. Furthermore, the qualitative sample was purposively dominated by technical experts to validate hydrogeological metrics; the exclusion of community representatives and women’s groups in the qualitative phase is acknowledged as a limitation. Future research employing continuous, independent hydro-sensor monitoring of the aquifers would provide an even more precise quantification of depletion rates.

Generative AI statement

The author(s) declared that Generative AI was not used in the creation of this manuscript.

Any alternative text (alt text) provided alongside figures in this article has been generated by Frontiers with the support of artificial intelligence and reasonable efforts have been made to ensure accuracy, including review by the authors wherever possible. If you identify any issues, please contact us.

Publisher’s note

All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article, or claim that may be made by its manufacturer, is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.

Footnotes

Edited by: Nidhi Nagabhatla, The United Nations University Institute on Comparative Regional Integration Studies (UNU-CRIS), Belgium

Reviewed by: Ines Gharbi, National Institute of Agronomic Research of Tunisia, Tunisia

Surya Pratap Singh, Srinath University, India

Footnotes

MAR, Managed aquifer recharge; KII, Key informant interview; SPSS, Statistical package for the social sciences; WASH, water, sanitation, and hygiene; PPP, Public-private partnership.