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Bayes Ahmed

Specialty Chief Editor

University College London

Climate Risk Management
Reviewer
Not reviewing

Recently published in their journal

Review

Policy and institutional drivers of climate-smart agriculture transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: a review of governance, regulation, and institutional support with implications for South Africa

Adetomiwa Kolapo, Melusi Sibanda, Nolwazi Z. Khumalo

Climate change continues to intensify agricultural vulnerability in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), threatening food security, rural livelihoods, and sustainable agrifood systems through increasing droughts, floods, land degradation, and erratic rainfall patterns. Although Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) has emerged as a strategic approach for improving agricultural productivity, resilience, and environmental sustainability, its implementation across SSA remains uneven and constrained by weak governance systems, fragmented policies, inadequate institutional support, and limited stakeholder coordination. Existing studies have largely focused on technological and agronomic dimensions of CSA, with insufficient attention given to the governance and institutional factors influencing CSA transition. This study, therefore, conducted a scoping review to examine the policy and institutional drivers of CSA transition in SSA, with emphasis on governance systems, regulatory frameworks, and institutional support mechanisms. The study adopted the PRISMA-ScR scoping review framework and systematically reviewed 21 eligible studies obtained from major academic databases and institutional repositories published between 2010 and 2026. Thematic content analysis was employed to synthesize evidence on governance systems, institutional arrangements, policy coherence, climate finance, extension services, and stakeholder partnerships influencing CSA implementation. The findings revealed that effective CSA transition depends significantly on coherent policies, institutional coordination, extension systems, climate financing, land governance, and inclusive multi-stakeholder partnerships. However, institutional fragmentation, weak policy integration, inadequate financing, poor extension services, and insecure land tenure systems remain major barriers constraining CSA adoption in SSA. The study recommends strengthening policy coherence, institutional capacity, decentralized governance systems, climate financing mechanisms, and participatory governance approaches to enhance climate-resilient agricultural transformation across Sub-Saharan Africa.

Original Research

Rapid intensification of Arabian Sea cyclonic storm and numerical simulation of ESCS Tauktae using the high-resolution ARW model

Rohini Ashok, Kuvar Satya Singh, Ambily Thankachan, Reshm M. S.

This study highlights the climatology of rapid intensification (RI) and rapid dissipation (RD) locations during 1990–2022 and suggests that RI and RD locations over the Arabian Sea (AS) have increased during 2012–2022. The results show that several RI locations occur within or near the 300-km offshore zone, highlighting the potential importance of coastal-oceanic environmental conditions in the future. The study also highlights the performance of the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW-WRF) model in a two-way moving nested domain (15:3) to understand the impact of planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes for the forecast of the extremely severe cyclonic storm (ESCS) Tauktae. The initial and lateral boundary conditions were provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Final Analysis (FNL). The best-fit track data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) were used to analyze cyclone tracks and intensities. The results indicated that the Quasi Normal Scale Elimination (QNSE) scheme and Asymmetric Convective Model version 2 (ACM2) methods performed better in forecasting the track, intensities, landfall, and rainfall. This study also examines relative humidity (RH) and horizontal wind. ACM2 exhibited the highest values for probability of detection (POD) and post-agreement (PAG) while demonstrating the lowest values for false alarm ratio (FAR) during rather heavy and heavy rainfall, indicating higher accuracy. These findings show that the accuracy of track, intensity, and structural forecasts is greatly increased when high horizontal resolution is combined with suitable planetary boundary layer techniques.

Brief Research Report

Modeling formula one’s path to net zero by 2030 - a systems approach for evaluating decarbonization strategies

Sachi Nandurkar, Caitlin Grady

In 2019, Formula 1 (F1) committed to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2030 across its entire value chain; however, this target has drawn both support and skepticism from the academic community. We present an exploratory systems scenario model using F1’s official sustainability reporting data to evaluate seven decarbonization interventions through two complementary analytical modes: a static calculator that enables direct scenario comparisons, and a time-dynamic simulator that projects adoption trajectories from 2024 to 2030 using gap-closing stock dynamics and an emissions-pressure feedback loop. Static sensitivity analysis shows that a 50% absolute reduction threshold is achievable under moderate actions. However, achieving net zero requires simultaneously maximizing all levers and offsetting a residual emissions balance whose magnitude depends on factors such as the quality and supply of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) across the lifecycle. Finally, we provide an interactive dashboard allowing users to test different intervention combinations in real time.

Original Research

Climate stress priming of juvenile Southern California giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) to marine heatwaves

Lauren L. Smith, Briana Le, Skye T. Krainer, Andie McNeil, Abigail P. Van Slyke, Halley E. Froehlich

Seaweed aquaculture production is expanding globally but threatened by increasing climate stressors, including extreme events. Ocean-based aquaculture is especially vulnerable to marine heatwaves, which can rapidly raise temperatures above the physiological limits of organisms, including macroalgae. While several interventions to increase aquaculture's resilience to climate impacts are being explored across different scales, ‘priming'-exposing an earlier stage of an organism to a mild stressor to prepare the individual for future stress-has emerged as a possible species adaptation for seaweeds that maintains genetic diversity but hardens individuals to stressors later in life. California has a developing seaweed sector while also experiencing some of the most extreme marine heatwave conditions on record. Using laboratory thermal experiments, we explored temperature impacts and potential priming effects on giant kelp, Macrocystis pyrifera, an important foundation species along the West Coast of the United States. Our trials focused on the juvenile sporophyte stage grown on miniaturized aquaculture spools. First, we determined the baseline reaction norms of the local M. pyrifera (5 to 30 °C) at the outplanting stage. Next, we tested if priming (with heat and/or nutrients) in a hatchery setting prepares M. pyrifera for outplanting to a marine heatwave. We measured growth, survival, photosynthetic function (Fv/Fm), and carbon and nitrogen assimilation via isotopes. We found temperatures above 20 °C had significant negative impacts on all metrics of performance of unprimed juvenile sporophytes, with conditions closer to 10 °C more favorable. Further, we determined heat priming in conjunction with hatchery level (i.e., elevated) nutrients resulted in overall increased performance when exposed to a simulated marine heatwave (18 °C) at outplanting. These findings support the continued exploration of priming as a tool for climate resilience and can inform current hatchery practices for aquaculture practitioners looking to improve crop outcomes for this species.

Perspective

Measuring large-scale mCDR using a novel Atmospheric CO₂ Perimeter Flux (ACPF) method

Peter Fiekowsky, Akhilesh Vijay, Anoohya Jami

Achieving net-zero CO₂ emissions globally requires an annual removal of on the order of 7–9 Gt CO₂; but current CO₂ removal (CDR) measurement methodologies are not designed to quantify marine CDR (mCDR) at the megaton-to-gigaton scales required for climate relevance. This perspective presents a new methodology, the Atmospheric CO₂ Perimeter Flux (ACPF) method, an atmospheric-domain framework for the monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) of marine carbon dioxide removal. ACPF relies on a network of autonomous surface vehicles (ASVs) that monitor CO₂ concentration and wind vector in the well-mixed marine boundary layer (MBL) above the mCDR region. The sensors integrate net CO₂ mass flux in the MBL across the perimeter in tonnes per hour. Paired upwind and downwind ASVs track the sampled air mass, suppressing synoptic-scale CO₂ variability common to both ends of the transect. The difference between upwind and downwind CO 2 values can be converted into XCO₂ difference values comparable to satellite retrievals. The framework constrains net surface exchange over the enclosed region without ocean-interior observations or a biological-pump model. Attributing that exchange to an intervention requires a baseline obtained by the same array, over the same region. The magnitude of the signal that ACPF must resolve is assessed against the surface CO₂ depletion implied by the post-Pinatubo atmospheric anomaly. The ACPF architecture applies to any bounded mCDR intervention that generates a measurable surface CO₂ depletion at the megaton-to-gigaton-per-year scale required by today’s net-zero commitments.