Harald Ulrik Sverdrup, Anders Nordby, Ole van Allen, Anna Hulda Olafsdottir, Kristín Vala Ragnarsdóttir, Wouter van Dieren
We have attempted a final count-down of all resources available to human society in future and converted this to monetary value for 2026. Simulations using the WORLD7 Integrated Assessment Model explore how long the available resources will support wealth and value creation in the global society. The estimates made suggests that about 75% of the world's value creation has its origin in natural resources, and about 2 / 3 of the value creation has its origin in finite, fossil natural resources, fossil energy, fossil metals, and fossil materials. Our results suggests that a system reconfiguration, including thorium-based technologies, would be required for making society last more than 1,000 generations. The most valuable resources in analysis are the energy resources, but these are partly dependent on the availability of technology metals and materials. Thorium appears to be the single most valuable energy resource on the list, provided thorium-based power plants are adopted, and based on the energy price. The gross revenue from resource extraction and the profit value of the annual production was estimated. The recoverable resource stocks of natural resources and the annual extraction rates were estimated. Our estimates were combined with earlier estimates of the value of the ecosystems on the Earth and estimates of the value of the geo- and biosphere to society. The model simulations point to the importance of a long-term material circularity, minimizing losses of material and preserving resource quality with time. The simulation outputs suggest the material resources will last about 250–400 years from the global industrialization in 1900 to about 2350. It appears that adjusting the settings of the present system is not sufficient for a fully sustainable society. The final conclusion is that natural resources are root currency of the human civilization, equivalent to what we call money, concurrent with Odums 1996 seminal book.
This paper forecasts United States (US) oil and gas production to 2100 based on historical production data from the US EIA. The ultimately recoverable resource (URR) of each category of US oil and gas is estimated mainly using “Hubbert linearization” (HL). Then forecasts of production are generated by combining past production with either single or multi-cyclic Hubbert (‘logistic-derivative’) curves constrained by the corresponding URRs or with symmetric decline where HL is unclear. The results find the dates for the resource-limited maxima (“peaks”) of US production to be approximately as follows: Lower-48 states conventional oil: 1971; light-tight (“fracked”, LTO) oil: about now (i.e., about 2026); conventional oil plus LTO: also about 2026; NGLs: about 2027; marketed natural gas: about 2028 or a bit after; and tight gas: between about 2026 to 2028. The production peaks for US conventiona l oil and conventional gas reflect strong limits set by the recoverable resources of these fuels while, for the ‘tight’ variants of oil and gas, the peak dates are less certain. For US oil production, the forecast peak date is similar to both a detailed bottom-up forecast by Globalshift.co.uk and a forecast using Rystad Energy data. However, for US gas production, our forecast is more conservative than from Globalshift.co.uk. These results contrast sharply with more optimistic forecasts from the US EIA. The near-term resource-limited maxima we predict for US oil and gas will almost certainly have significant political and economic impacts and need to be incorporated into energy models and policy-making.
Market-based mechanisms have gained traction in environmental governance during the Anthropocene. One such mechanism is conservation concessions, which are promoted in the Global South as a neoliberal strategy that aligns ecological protection with economic rationality. Yet empirical evidence on their actual conservation outcomes and community benefits remains scanty. In this perspective, we argue that within prevailing capitalist frameworks, conservation concessions risk functioning as a form of green grabbing. Anchored in a political economy approach and critical agrarian studies, we synthesize evidence from multi-country case studies, with particular attention to Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in Malawi, to examine the interplay between state power, transnational capital, and local agrarian structures. Our analysis reveals that despite being discursively framed as apolitical and win-win, conservation concessions can lead to: (i) restructuring of property and access rights, alienating customary users from their subsistence means; (ii) creation of precarious labor relations that often fail to offer viable alternatives for displaced smallholders; and (iii) reconfiguration of rural class dynamics, empowering conservation-oriented elites while marginalizing the agrarian poor. We conclude that conservation concessions represent a symptomatic response by capitalism to its own ecological contradictions, commodifying and financializing nature as a new frontier of accumulation. The study advocates for a foundational shift toward radical land tenure security, community-led forest governance, and agroecological perspectives. We offer a critical framework for evaluating the socio-ecological viability of conservation investments and call for renewed debate on agrarian futures in the Anthropocene.
Dintle Ntleni Korie, Bimo Abraham Nkhata, Yolandi Schoeman, Vincent Raphael Nyirenda, Linda Downsborough
This paper provides a chronological synthesis of scholarship on adaptive ecological restoration and examines its emergence within mine rehabilitation literature, with particular reference to its implications for South Africa's mining sector. Mining landscapes are characterized by long-term ecological degradation, hydrological instability, and social-ecological vulnerability, while conventional rehabilitation approaches have increasingly been criticized for their limited capacity to respond to environmental uncertainty and changing ecosystem conditions. Adaptive ecological restoration has therefore emerged as a more flexible, learning-oriented, and systems-based approach. The study employed a systematic literature review using peer-reviewed publications sourced from Google Scholar, Scopus, and Web of Science. Literature published between 2000 and 2025 was identified using the keywords “adaptive ecological restoration,” “adaptive management,” “mine rehabilitation,” “mine closure,” “ecological restoration,” and “post-mining landscapes.” Following predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria, the selected studies were analyzed through thematic and chronological synthesis. The paper also presents illustrative South African practice vignettes demonstrating how adaptive restoration principles may be operationalised in post-mining landscapes. The findings identify three phases in the evolution of adaptive ecological restoration scholarship: an early conceptual phase emphasizing ecological resilience and adaptive management; a transitional phase integrating social-ecological systems and environmental governance; and a contemporary phase characterized by stakeholder-inclusive, ecosystem-based, and climate-responsive restoration strategies. The review further identifies core principles, including long-term monitoring, iterative decision-making, ecosystem resilience, community participation, and integrated environmental governance. The study concludes that adaptive ecological restoration provides a robust governance and learning framework for addressing uncertainty in mine rehabilitation, supporting resilient post-mining landscapes, and advancing sustainable restoration practice in South Africa and other mining-dependent regions.
Oliver Simeon Lihuluku, Deo D. Shirima, Agnes A. Sirima
Ecotourism is increasingly promoted as a conservation financing mechanism in developing coastal regions, yet empirical evidence linking visitor activity to ecosystem outcomes remains limited. This study examined the relationship between ecotourism visitation and land cover change across three Tanzanian coastal sites over 11 years (2012-2022). Using a cross-sectional mixed methods design, we analyzed ecotourism records from 353,492 visitors, assessed landcover changes through supervised classification of multitemporal satellite imagery, and conducted semi-structured interviews with 15 key informants. Strong positive correlations emerged between visitor numbers and restoration investment at Pugu Kazimzumbwi Nature Forest Reserve (r = 0.992), Kaole Ruins (r = 0.971), and Mbudya Island Marine Reserve (r = 0.858). However, land cover analysis revealed contrasting outcomes: Pugu Kazimzumbwi experienced a 10% decline in vegetation and a 9% increase in built-up area despite 45% visitor growth; Kaole Ruins showed farmland conversion, while Mbudya Island gained 10% vegetation through mangrove recovery. Therefore, the findings suggest that, higher levels of ecotourism visitations are positively associated with ecosystems restoration efforts through increased conservation financing and management activities. However, the observed relationships are correlational and should not be interpreted as evidence of direct causality. However, unmanaged tourism also contributes to localized ecosystem degradation. It is essential to strengthen site-specific management strategies, enforce carrying capacity limits, and reinvest tourism revenues into restoration efforts to maximize the ecological benefits of ecotourism in coastal Tanzania.
